The real lesson of the recent special elections is not about Trump hate or Party loyalty

by Marc Bochner

Inside the Pennsylvania 18th congressional district special election victory. I know we have all heard the media framing about what a huge upset this race was, but are they missing all the most important takeaways? Donald Trump won here by more than 20% against Hillary Clinton in 2016... so slam dunk for the Republican right? Well not so fast, There are 35,000 more registered democrats than republicans in this district... But it has trended Republican since the mid 1990s. How could that be and what happened in the mid 90s?

This is a heavily industrial district, so one could infer that a populist labor agenda would play well here... and it did. So why did Hillary lose so badly in a district which has more Dems and a lot of labor? For the same reason that this district started trending Republican in the mid 90s... Bill Clinton. He and his administration pushed and passed free trade agreements that crushed labor, outsourced jobs, held down wages and destroyed communities like those in this district. (Free Trade killed this entire midwest region economically in fact)

The Clinton's push for globalization and free trade has turned much of the labor vote over to Republicans. This is why Gore lost in 2000, its why Dems have been wiped out in nearly all levels of government and why there is such a divide within the Democratic party today. The corporate Dems seized control of the Democratic party in the 90s then handed it over to the same corporate donors who were funding the Republicans. They then created a false choice in American politics where the poor, middle class, labor, peace activists and environmental activists were all left without either party representing them. These formerly reliable Democratic voting blocks have been fluid ever since, searching for where to give their votes. Since neither major party is earning their votes with policy only promises, they can't be relied on to support party, but run an anti labor candidate like Hillary Clinton and you can be sure, your candidate will be seen as the greater evil. They are the true swing voters, but nobody is saying so. Because the narrative is that Dems own these voters and then they bully and shame them to fall in line... but they don't respond to threats smears and bullying, they respond to policy. George W Bush sold them on being a compassionate conservative, then failed them badly, next Obama promised hope and change which turned out to be more of the same and still failed them badly. Along comes Trump promising the end of TPP and making America Great Again... another lie and another fail.

So moving forward Conner Lamb made specific promises to the industries in his district and won. It wasn't a big democratic win nor a message of Trump resistance. It played the same way as the Doug Jones race, promise to be something different than the garbage currently representing them, run against and amazingly flawed opponent and the voters are desperate enough to give you a shot... fail and you send those voters back on the hunt for someone who understands their issues and will prioritize them over donors.

I can't state this often enough... these swing voters are largely the labor vote... they are the American workers who have been abandoned by both major parties. Its not race, age or gender thing, it's workers struggling in a rigged economy thing. These voters who may not have been with Bernie Sanders and the progressive wing of the Democratic party in 2015 were definitely approaching all in as it became clear who was fighting for and against them. Then when Dems were caught installing the Queen of Free Trade (who will never win their votes), they started looking at Trump who was lying, but using populist rhetoric stolen from Sanders stump speeches. This is also where the divide within the Democratic party started to take root.

No matter who a Clinton is running against, to labor, the Clinton's and anyone associated with them will always be the greater evil and thus in a heavy labor district which was devastated by free trade, the 20 point spread wasn't a red/ blue thing, it was an anti Clinton thing... precisely what Michael Moore was trying to warn the Dems was happening in the mid west during the primaries which they ignored because it was her turn don't you know?

That's the lesson for the Democrats, but will they learn it? Not likely since to corporate Democrats who control the party and the media narratives have already been spreading the wrong take away. They are saying that the model to winning all over Trump country is middle right corporate candidates and identity politics (the very same strategy that has contributed to the party being wiped out on nearly all levels of government. New York Magazine put it this way

there are a lot of Conor Lambs out there. Very early in the election cycle, Democrats recruited candidates with nontraditional backgrounds, especially in the military, who would appeal to voters in red districts. “A rough profile of [Democrats’] ideal candidate has started to emerge: veterans, preferably with small business experience too,” reported Politico last April. “They’d like as many of them to be women or people who’ve never run for office before — and having young children helps.”

The tone deafness is off the charts... still. They are less interested in providing candidates who represent the people on the issues and more interested in finding a way to convince voters to vote for a candidate profile and good story. They are not interested in an agenda that unrigs the economy, puts workers first, pays a living wage, provides healthcare for everyone (not just access for those who can afford to pay for it), protection from corporate greed, free public college/relief from crushing student loan debt and a planet that will be livable for their children and grandchildren.  If you listen to them those positions are too liberal and can't win in red and purple states even though polling doesn't support that claim with all of those positions polling very popular, especially with the demographics they need to win (Labor and millennials).

You don't win them with more of the same, you win them with candidates who show they understand how government has failed them and specifically how they will fight for them to have a better life. That's not Trump hate or Party loyalty, that's an agenda that values people over money.

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