Bernie Sanders NOT Hillary Clinton is the most electable candidate against Trump

Bernie Sanders NOT Hillary Clinton is the most electable candidate against Trump

Head to Head Polling has always favored Sanders against GOP

Poll after poll shows that Bernie is the strongest against Trump or any of the GOP frontrunners. In nearly every instance Bernie is shown to beat all republicans while Hillary either wins those same match ups by smaller margins if at all (She loses or is within the margin of error in many match ups)

A look behind the numbers shows why this is a predictable outcome and not a surprise.

Independent and young voters

Bernie crushes all candidates in either party with both Independent and young voters.

When you look at Hillary’s base voters you find that they are almost exclusively establishment or reliable democratic voters. They are reliable to show up and vote and often follow the party line on who to support. They give her an edge in the primary because 0f their reliability, but as Obama found in both mid terms are often not enough to win alone. Democrats win when they get help and lose when they don’t get help from left leaning Independent and first time voters.

By contrast Bernie’s base has some of the reliable democratic voting block but is winning with Independent and young voters. When they have shown up in blue and purple states Bernie has won, when they didn’t show up in red southern states he has lost. Bernie with these voters expands the base.

In a general election establishment and reliable democratic voters will show up to vote for the D regardless of who gets the nomination. They vote for the D and against the R. When democrats expand the base like Obama did in ‘08 and ‘12 the Dems won going away… when they didn’t expand the base in ‘00 and ‘04 they lost or kept it close enough to steal… and even worse got crushed in nearly every mid term when they didn’t have a force at the top of the ticket expanding the base. Now this is where the party insiders are completely tone deaf… the young and Independent voters have been very clear that they don’t support, don’t trust, don’t like and won’t vote for Hillary. Party insiders can shame them all they want, they don’t consider themselves to be democrats and are voting for the candidate and the issues, not the party. They have been clear that neither party has had their backs in their judgement and they see Hillary as being as much a part of the problem as they do any republican. Without those blocks Hillary is very vulnerable to lose a general election and down ballot races will suffer for the democrats as well.

Likability and Trustworthiness

Once again in poll after poll people report that they don’t like or trust Hillary Clinton, She is consistently found to have the lowest or among the lowest ratings in both categories along with Trump. Nobody with a higher unfavorability rating than favorability has ever been elected President. When someone is making that final decision about whether or not to actually cast the vote, whether they like or trust you is a big factor on voter turnout, especially on the democratic side where they are more likely to be motivated to vote for someone or something than against someone or something.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/sanders-won-michigan-because-hes-honest_b_9416226.html

By contrast Bernie Sanders is found to be the most likeable and honest candidate running in either party. In every blue and purple state where he is run big turnout numbers these factors are told to exit pollers as being an important reason why they turned out to vote for Bernie. Touched on this before, but in red southern states where this was not said to be an important factor Hillary won by huge margins. But so far in this race, the red southern states seem to be the only place this doesn’t seem to matter.

Money

Bernie Sanders is a money machine… He has gotten over 5,000,000 small dollar donations, with virtually all of his donors able to give again. There are no strings attached to those contributions. With lots of states still yet to run, he still has yet to introduce himself to much of the county. By contrast Hillary is mostly getting her donations at small high dollar fundraisers with wealthy donors. Every fundraiser she holds is time she isn’t doing larger campaign events or media events. These fundraisers also cap out most of those donors and despite the claims to contrary come with strings attached. In a general election he will probably have access to many of Hillary’s non strings attached donors who will be donating to prevent a Trump presidency, while Hillary won’t likely have access to many of the Sanders donors who have promised to not even vote for her let alone donate to her.

Excitement

Bernie draws huge crowds and his supporters are willing to phone bank, canvass, promote his candidacy on social media and volunteer in any way he needs.  Hillary by contrast needs to pay for many of the things the Sanders campaign gets for free as his supporters are passionate about him, his candidacy and his issues. The Hillary crowds are a fraction the size, her social media presence is mostly paid for, and in state after state when they talk to her voters we find a large number of them say they like Bernie, but they are voting for her because they think she can win. Sure she has a base of people wanting a woman in the white house, but the number of people passionate about her or her issues is relatively small. You can see this in visible presence too. I’m in California where Bernie has only done one event and yet when it comes to seeing campaign shirts, buttons or other swag I see Bernie stuff several times a day while I can go weeks without seeing anything for Hillary. The excitement gap would appear to be significant.

Agenda

in state after state Hillary has a huge lead in polls until they both start campaigning there and and then Bernie surges while Hillary tries to hold him off. After they hear Bernie, what he represents and has always fought for they report they like him more, even many of those who still vote for her say they like him, but think she has a better chance to win (but does she? can you still agree with that narrative?). His ideas are popular not just with democratic voters and Independent voters but even with some republican voters.

Even though Hillary has adopted almost Bernie’s entire platform in some watered down non committal way, people are reminded why they don’t like or trust Hillary when they find out her new policies don’t match her record or previous statements. Can you really trust her to fight for or champion issues that she has only even claimed to have for a year when she has a 25 year record of being on the other side of all those issues? Logic tells you no, and if it doesn’t, it should.

Scandals

Hillary is a scandal magnate with an ongoing FBI investigation hanging over her head. In fact the FBI investigation into her emails has expanded to a point where it’s being reported that over 100 classified emails were sent over her private server with some being the highest level of classification. A former member of the Obama Department of Homeland Security has suggested that given the direction the investigation has taken she should drop out of the race.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2016/02/15/former-defense-intelligence-chief-hillary-should-drop-out-of-presidential-race-n2118063

Hillary is winning in southern red states, Bernie is winning in Blue and Purple states.

This should be a big cause for concern with the Hillary is the best democrat for a general election crowd… she has been crushing Bernie in southern red states where she has no chance of winning in a general election, but in the states she needs to win in a general election Bernie surges fast within weeks of starting to campaign there. She can’t hold a lead in states she needs to win. And the way he closes her leads is with young and Independent voters. Incidently the 2nd most popular candidate with Independent voters is Donald Trump. Do we really want to watch that pattern of Independent voters overwhelming establishment democrats in a critical general election?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/d-c-rutledge/sanders-is-winning-blue-s_b_9426934.html

There is a lot at stake

With so much at stake, it’s important that we as democrats, progressives and compassionate independents nominate the strongest democratic candidate. One who will not only hold the white house, but also help down ballot democrats running for congress and state offices. The bonus is that he will bring with him a true agenda of change… the change we can believe in. The Change we have been waiting for. Bernie Sanders is the best hope we have, lets not blow this because someone or the media has convinced us to settle for a candidate who doesn't represent the change we need just because they say she is the best chance to win. Like much of the rest of the mainstream media messaging, its a lie to push their interests not ours.



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